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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 23
2021-08-05 10:41:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050841 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 Hilda is maintaining a small, but shrinking area of deep convection, which has rotated from the southeast to northern portion of the storm's circulation. A 0405 UTC ASCAT-A and 0522 UTC ASCAT-B pass had peak wind retrievals of 36 and 40 kt respectively, about 40 n mi northeast of Hilda's center. This scatterometer data suggests that the storm might have been stronger than estimated yesterday when the convection was more robust. However, given the warming cloud tops and shrinking area of convection since that time, the initial advisory intensity was kept at 35 kt, which still agrees with the most recent subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Hilda is moving to the west-northwest at 8 kt as the tropical cyclone remains steered by a large subtropical ridge over the eastern North Pacific. As the storm becomes more shallow, its general motion should bend westward and gradually accelerate due to the influence of a large low-level ridge centered well northward. The latest track guidance is slightly more poleward early on, and the NHC track forecast was nudged a bit further north, but remains a bit south of the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA). As noted previously, the GFS model forecast remains a northern outlier, with more interaction between Hilda and recently upgraded Jimena, and its solution is not favored at this time. As Hilda continues to move over increasingly cool ocean waters and into a drier and more stable environment, the remaining deep convection will likely dissipate at some point later today. Additional convective bursts thereafter will become increasingly unlikely. The latest NHC forecast expects Hilda to weaken to a tropical depression later today and become a remnant low by tomorrow. This solution is favored by most of the intensity guidance. The remnant low is then forecast to open up into a trough by the weekend, well east of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 20.1N 129.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 20.9N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 21.9N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 22.6N 135.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z 23.2N 137.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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