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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-07-31 16:49:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 029 WTPZ43 KNHC 311449 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 Hilda is strengthening quickly this morning. Satellite images show an eye feature trying to form, and convection has deepened and become increasingly symmetric around the center. The latest Dvorak estimates supported raising the initial intensity to 55 kt at 12Z, and since Hilda continues to organize, the initial intensity is set a little higher at 60 kt for this advisory. This makes Hilda just below hurricane strength. The current favorable environmental conditions of low wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and warm SSTs should continue to allow Hilda to intensify during the next day or so. In addition, given that Hilda now has a tight inner core, rapid intensification (RI) is a decent possibility, and the SHIPS RI index now shows a 30 percent chance of that occurring during the next 24 hours. In a couple of days, however, decreasing moisture and progressively cooler SSTs should end the strengthening trend and gradually cause weakening during the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is above than the previous one in the short term and it lies at the high end of the model guidance. The long term forecast is largely similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Hilda is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. A subtropical ridge should keep the storm on a general west-northwest heading during the next several days, but there could be some interaction with Tropical Depression Nine-E to the west and a low pressure area to the east that could cause slow downs and wobbles in the future track. There is a fair amount of spread among the models, especially at the longer range forecast times, but the latest consensus models are right on top of the previous track. Therefore, the NHC track forecast is largely just an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 13.7N 116.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 14.0N 118.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 14.4N 119.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 15.0N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 15.5N 122.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 16.1N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 16.9N 125.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 18.5N 128.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 19.3N 132.6W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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