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Tropical Storm Ignacio Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-08-02 16:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 021433 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ignacio Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 A large burst of deep convection has developed near the center and over most of the southwestern semicircle of the cyclone. Recent subjective satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON are 37 kt and 39 kt, respectively. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased to 35 kt, making the system the ninth tropical storm of the 2021 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Tropical Storm Ignacio has continued to move west-northwestward, and the initial motion estimate is 295/08 kt. Both the track forecast and synoptic reasoning remain unchanged for this advisory. Ignacio is expected to maintain a west-northwestward motion, wedged between a strong mid-/upper-level ridge to the north and Hurricane Hilda to the southwest throughout the 48-hour forecast period. The new track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus track models. Ignacio is likely near its peak intensity given that northeasterly vertical wind shear of 18-20 kt is expected to keep the strongest convection displaced away from the strongest surface winds that are likely occurring in the northeastern semicircle. By 24 hours or so, Ignacio will be moving over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures and into even stronger wind shear, which should induce steady weakening, with dissipation expected by 60 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 18.3N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.0N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.8N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 20.3N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z 20.7N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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