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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-08-07 04:34:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 192 WTPZ41 KNHC 070233 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 GOES-16 visible satellite imagery and a couple of earlier microwave images indicate that Ileana's cloud pattern has become rather amorphous during the past several hours, and the distinct low cloud elements identified earlier today in visible imagery are no longer evident. Based on the deteriorating satellite presentation, the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt for this advisory, which is still a little higher than the subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The global and hurricane models are in good agreement with Ileana dissipating in less than 24 hours, as a result of larger Hurricane John's upper tropospheric outflow. The UKMET, however, maintains Ileana as a shallow tropical cyclone for a little longer...about 36 hours prior to dissipation. The official intensity forecast sides with the model majority solution showing the cyclone either being absorbed by John, or dissipating in about 24 hours, and is also based on a similar scenario reflected in the LGEM statistical intensity model output. The initial motion remains a bit unclear, but still appears to be northwestward and little faster...305/17 kt. Ileana is forecast to move between Hurricane John to the west and a deep-layer ridge extending over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC forecast is again nudged slightly to the right of the previous advisory and is close to the TVCN model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 18.0N 104.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 19.3N 107.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 20.8N 111.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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