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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-08-07 10:53:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018 404 WTPZ41 KNHC 070853 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018 Infrared and microwave satellite imagery suggest that Ileana's low-level circulation may have been disrupted by the Sierra Madre mountain range when the cyclone passed just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico and likely opened up into a wave between 0000-0400 UTC. However, a strong burst of convection containing a large area of cloud tops colder than -80 deg C has redeveloped just northeast of the alleged center during the past couple of hours, which could help regenerate a new low-level center. Thus the system is still being considered to be a tropical cyclone until more conclusive data to the contrary become available. The initial intensity of 45 kt is based on a Dvorak satellite current intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is a faster and uncertain 295/20 kt. Ileana or its remnants are forecast to maintain a fairly quick west-northwestward motion around or within the northeastern and northern portions of Hurricane John's outer circulation, with the latter system currently located only about 200 nmi southwest of the much smaller Ileana. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCE. The global and regional hurricane models remain in good agreement on Ileana dissipating in less than 18 hours, due in large part from strong vertical wind created by the northwesterly outflow associated with nearby Hurricane John. Until dissipation occurs, however, only slight weakening is expected due to the recent increase in deep convection near and to the northeast of the alleged center, and also as a result of Ileana's relatively fast forward speed of 20 kt. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 19.4N 106.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 20.6N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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