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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-08-05 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 185 WTPZ41 KNHC 052034 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 The cyclone has continued to become better organized today, with a fairly symmetrical shape on geostationary imagery. Data from a recent ASCAT overpass showed that the center was embedded about in the middle of a small CDO-like feature. The scatterometer data indicated maximum winds of 35-40 kt, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB gave intensity estimates of 35 kt and 45 kt, respectively. Blending these various estimates yields a current intensity of about 40 kt, and the tropical cyclone is thus being named. Since the system should be in a warm water and low shear environment for the next couple of days, some additional strengthening is forecast. However a strengthening cyclone is situated not far to the west of Ileana. This larger system is forecast by the ECMWF and GFS models to become the dominant cyclone in a few days, and cause the tropical storm to dissipate near the northern side of the larger circulation. That is the scenario shown by the official intensity forecast. There is more confidence in the center position than there was earlier today, and the estimated initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. Over the next couple of days, Ileana is likely to move between a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast and the larger cyclonic circulation to its west and southwest. The official track forecast is on the southern side of the track guidance envelope. It is also very close to the latest HCCA forecast track. Interests along the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, given the uncertainties in the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 13.6N 98.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 14.5N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 16.2N 102.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 17.9N 104.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 19.2N 106.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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