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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-08-06 04:51:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060251 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 A new burst of deep convection developed near the low-level center beginning around 2200 UTC. A second ASCAT pass earlier this afternoon showed winds of 40-45 kt, while SATCON estimates from UW-CIMSS were a little above 50 kt. Given these data, Ileana's maximum winds are estimated to be 45 kt. The shear is forecast to be on the order of 15 kt, which is not the most ideal environment for strengthening, but the cyclone will also be moving over very warm waters of 30-31 degrees Celsius and through a moisture-laden environment. Nearly all of the intensity models indicate additional strengthening, with some, such as the SHIPS and LGEM models, bringing Ileana near or to hurricane strength in a day or so. On the flip side, the GFS and ECMWF have Ileana opening up into a trough on the northern side of Tropical Storm John in 36-48 hours. Given the large spread in model scenarios, the updated NHC intensity forecast is increased only a little from the previous advisory. A 48-hour forecast is still provided for continuity, but if the GFS and ECMWF are right, the cyclone could dissipate by that time. Ileana is moving a little faster toward the west-northwest with an initial motion of 290/11 kt. Additional acceleration with a turn toward the northwest is expected over the next day or so as the cyclone moves between Tropical Storm John and large-scale ridging over Mexico and the southern United States. The updated NHC track forecast is essentially right along the projection from the previous advisory, but it is a little faster to account for the speedier GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA solutions. The forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii in the new official forecast now graze the coast of southwestern Mexico, and as a result, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes. Even though Ileana is forecast to dissipate after 48 hours, it is not out of the question that the cyclone could last a little longer, and interests on the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of the storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 14.3N 99.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 15.3N 101.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 17.2N 103.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 19.1N 106.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 20.9N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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