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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-08-06 10:59:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 011 WTPZ41 KNHC 060859 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 A strong burst of deep convection consisting of some cloud top temperatures of -85 to -90 deg C near the center has developed during the past several hours. A Central Dense Overcast (CDO) feature has developed as a result, and the Acapulco, Mexico, radar indicates that a banded eye feature has developed in the center of the CDO. Based on the radar data and a UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T3.6/57 kt, the initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt. Ileana has begun to accelerate around the eastern periphery of rapidly developing Tropical Storm John, and initial motion estimate is now 310/15 kt. Little change was made to the previous forecast track other than to nudge the forecast a little more to the right, closer to Mexico, due to the more eastward initial position based on the aforementioned radar data. Ileana is expected to continue moving northwestward between Tropical Storm John and a deep-layer ridge over Mexico. The NHC model guidance remains in good agreement on this track scenario until dissipation or absorption occurs in about 72 hours, and the new forecast track lies close to the HCCA and FSSE consensus track model solutions. The shear is forecast to decrease to around 15 kt over the next 24 hours, and the global model fields actually indicate that the shear could be lower than that since most of the stronger outflow from Tropical Storm John will remain north of Ileana. Based on the expected lower shear conditions, a very moist atmosphere, SSTs near 30 deg C, and the much improved internal structure noted in radar data, Ileana is forecast to become a hurricane within the next 24 hours. The official intensity forecast follows the upward trend of the consensus models FSSE and HCCA, but is a little lower and closer to the IVCN intensity consensus model. The forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii in the new official forecast has been expanded to the northeast based on recent ASCAT wind data. Although the core of strongest winds are forecast to remain offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico, only a slight deviation to the right of track and/or strong localized funneling effects would bring hurricane-force winds onshore. As a result, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 15.2N 100.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 16.5N 102.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 18.5N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 20.3N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 21.6N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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