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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-08-06 16:39:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 557 WTPZ41 KNHC 061439 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 Ileana continues to produce very deep convection near its center, with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. Microwave imagery and the Acapulco radar have shown some eyewall structure, at least at mid-levels. Although conventional Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB provided intensity estimates of only 45 kt, the advisory intensity is kept at 55 kt in better agreement with SATCON estimates from UW-CIMSS. Since Ileana will be in a moist, low-shear, and warm water environment, the system is likely to strengthen into a hurricane within 12 hours or so, with some additional intensification through Tuesday morning. Thereafter, the influence of the much larger circulation of John to the southwest is expected to begin having an adverse effect on Ileana. The system should begin weakening later on Tuesday, and dissipate or become absorbed by John on Wednesday. This is the scenario that is depicted by the ECMWF and GFS global model guidance. Ileana continues to move briskly toward the northwest or about 310/15 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to move between a mid-level ridge and the circulation of John for the next couple of days. The official track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one but a little north of the latest multi-model consensus. No changes to the watches and warnings are required at this time. Although the core of strongest winds is forecast to remain offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico, only a slight deviation to the right of track could bring stronger winds onshore, particularly in the area where the hurricane watch has been posted. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 16.3N 101.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 17.8N 104.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 19.3N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 21.5N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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