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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-11-15 03:32:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150232 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Iota continues to strengthen. Deep convection has been increasing in coverage and intensity near the center, and microwave images indicate that the inner core is becoming better defined. The Dvorak classifications at 00Z supported an intensity of 55 kt, and since the thunderstorms continue to organize, the initial wind speed is set a little higher to 60 kt. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Iota overnight. Iota has slowed a little and has now turned westward, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 270/4 kt. A ridge over Florida and the western Atlantic is expected to remain to the north of Iota. This high pressure system, and another ridge over Mexico and the western Gulf, should steer the storm westward to west-northwestward during the next couple of days and then westward to west-southwestward after that. This motion should take the core of Iota to the coast of Nicaragua Monday night. The models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. The atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear quite favorable for Iota to continue strengthening until it reaches the coast in a little more than 2 days. Since the storm appears to be developing an inner core, rapid strengthening during the next couple of days seems likely. All of the intensity models show a significant amount of strengthening before landfall, and are higher than the previous cycle. Based on the latest guidance and favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast is above the previous one and shows Iota becoming a hurricane soon and a major hurricane in 36 hours. After Iota moves inland, rapid weakening is forecast as the cyclone moves over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and southern Honduras. The NHC forecast lies close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to intensify and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for portions of the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras, and hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected there beginning Monday. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia beginning late Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible by Sunday evening on San Andres. 3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 12.7N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 12.9N 77.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 13.3N 79.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 13.7N 81.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 14.0N 82.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 14.1N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0000Z 14.0N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0000Z 13.6N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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