je.st
news
Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 22
2017-07-27 22:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 272039 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 There has been no change in the structure of Irwin. The cyclone continues to be sheared with the center intermittently located in and out of the convection. Dvorak numbers remain unchanged, consequently, the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt in this advisory. The environment is neither hostile nor favorable for a significant change in strength for the next 48 hours, so only small fluctuations in intensity are anticipated during that period. Thereafter, steady weakening should begin as Irwin's circulation encounters cooler waters. By day four, Irwin should have merged with Hilary. This continues to be the solution provided by the ECMWF and GFS global models, and it is indicated in the NHC forecast. Steering currents are very weak and Irwin is basically meandering westward. No significant motion is forecast until Hilary passes to the north in about 2 days. By then, Irwin is expected to begin moving northward a little bit faster steered by the southerly flow in the wake of Hilary. Guidance is consistent with the very slow motion during the next day or so, and most of the models clearly capture the faster northward motion around Hilary later in the period. The NHC forecast, primarily beyond 2 days, follows the multi-model consensus, and is in between the faster ECMWF and the slower GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 14.9N 124.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 14.8N 124.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 14.7N 124.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 14.6N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 15.0N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 19.0N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 31/1800Z...Merged with Hilary $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||