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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 28
2017-07-29 10:58:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 290858 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Convection associated with Irwin has changed little over the past several hours, with weak convection in ragged bands occurring primarily in the southeastern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have also changed little since the last advisory, so the initial intensity remains 50 kt. Some strengthening is possible today while the storm remains over warm sea surface temperatures. After that, Irwin should weaken over waters that cool to near 23C near the 96 h forecast position. As mentioned in the discussion for Tropical Storm Hilary, the model guidance is diverse as to the eventual fate of Irwin as it interacts with Hilary, with the possibilities ranging from the early merger shown by the Canadian model to the ECMWF scenario of the two systems dissipating separately but in close proximity. The forecast leans more to the ECMWF solution and shows Irwin dissipating after 96 h to the north of Hilary or its remnants. Irwin is currently nearly stationary. A northward motion is expected to begin later today. Then, as the cyclone moves around the eastern and northern side of Hilary, a turn toward the north-northwest is expected in about 36 h, followed by a northwestward motion near the end of the cyclone's life. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track through 48 h, and it is shifted westward after that in agreement with the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 14.9N 124.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 15.7N 124.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 17.1N 125.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 19.2N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 21.7N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 25.5N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0600Z 27.5N 133.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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