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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 30
2017-07-29 22:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 292033 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Irwin's cloud pattern continues to be defined by a low-level center located just to the north of a cyclonically curved convective band in the southern semicircle. Dvorak intensity estimates are beginning to indicate weakening, and a recent partial ASCAT pass shows maximum winds of 40 kt. However, given the banding-type eye structure observed on visible images, the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt. The circulation is still over warm waters, and Irwin could maintain the same intensity for another 12 hours or so. After that time, the cyclone will begin to move over cooler waters resulting in gradual weakening. Models are now showing that Irwin and Hilary will get very close to each other while dissipating. Irwin is forecast to become a remnant low by 72 hours and is expected to be dissipated by day 5. Irwin began to move toward the north or 360 degrees at 6 kt. Soon the cyclone will be steered by the flow in the wake of Hilary and turn more to the north-northwest and northwest with increasing forward speed. There is no significant change from the previous forecast which continues to be very close to the multi-model consensus primarily during the next 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 15.6N 124.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 16.7N 124.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 18.7N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 21.0N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 23.5N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 26.5N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1800Z 27.5N 134.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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