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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 38
2017-07-31 22:33:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 312033 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 The deep convection associated with Irwin has been decreasing throughout the day, and it is currently limited to a fairly small area near and to the east of the center. The Dvorak classifications have decreased, and an average of the latest intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial wind speed to 40 kt. Satellite data show that dry and stable air is wrapping into the circulation. This stable air mass combined with cool SSTs should lead to additional weakening, and Irwin will likely become a remnant low tonight or on Tuesday. The remnant low is expected to continue to spin down, and ultimately dissipate in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and it follows the trend of the guidance. Irwin continues to move north-northwestward on the west side of a mid-level high following the path of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilary. This motion is expected to continue for about another day. Thereafter, a decrease in forward speed and a slight turn to the northwest is predicted as the shallow remnant low moves in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 22.7N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 24.2N 128.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 26.1N 129.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0600Z 27.4N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1800Z 28.5N 132.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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