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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 39
2017-08-01 04:41:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 010241 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Irwin isn't quite dead yet, with a new burst of convection in the eastern semicircle, despite the storm being over sub-23C waters. Intensity estimates are unchanged, so the winds are kept at 40 kt. This burst should be short lived, and Irwin is forecast to lose all remaining deep convection tomorrow over sub-22C waters. The cyclone is expected to gradually spin down, and ultimately dissipate in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast remains the same as the last advisory, following the model consensus. Irwin continues to move north-northwestward on the west side of a mid-level high following behind the remnants of Hilary. This motion is expected to continue for about another day, with Irwin predicted to turn northwestward and slow down as the cyclone becomes shallow. There is no significant change to the guidance, and the official forecast is very close to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 23.8N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 25.3N 129.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 26.8N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1200Z 28.0N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0000Z 29.1N 132.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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