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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 40
2017-08-01 10:54:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 01 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 010854 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 01 2017 Irwin stubbornly remains a tropical cyclone this morning. The systems continues to produce a small area of deep convection near the center despite being over SSTs of around 22 deg C. The convection has gradually waned over the past 24 hours, but recent ASCAT data indicate that the maximum winds remain around 40 kt. Irwin should lose all of its remaining convection later today, and should become post-tropical within the next 12 to 24 hours while it moves over even colder waters. As a result, the system is forecast to gradually spin down, with the remnant circulation dissipating in 2 to 3 days. A mid-level high pressure area to the northeast of Irwin continues to steer the cyclone north-northwestward. This general motion is forecast to continue this morning. As Irwin weakens and becomes a shallow system, it should slow down and turn northwestward. The track guidance remains in agreement on this scenario and no significant change to the previous forecast was required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 24.9N 128.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 26.2N 129.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 27.5N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1800Z 28.4N 131.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0600Z 29.2N 132.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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