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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-08-28 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 282032 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 First light visible imagery shows that Iselle's center of circulation has once again reappeared to the northeast of the deep convective mass. Last night's briefly diminished shear interlude probably resulted in Iselle's peak intensity. For this advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt which is based on a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, a METOP-B ASCAT overpass containing 40-45 kt winds and a SATCON analysis of 42 kt. The northeasterly shear is forecast to persist through the 24 hour period and then decrease and veer from the southeast. At that time, however, Iselle will be traversing sub 25C sea surface temperatures and will be moving into a more dry and stable surrounding environment. As a result, Iselle should weaken to a tropical depression Saturday night and degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday. The initial motion is estimated to be north-northeastward, or, 020/6 kt. A northward direction should commence Saturday morning, then a turn north-northwestward is forecast Sunday morning. As Iselle continues to weaken and degenerates to a remnant low, a turn toward the northwest, well offshore of the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula, is expected to occur Sunday late night. The NHC forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is close to the GFEX (FV3/ECMWF mean) and the NOAA HCCA consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 18.8N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 19.6N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 21.0N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 22.6N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 23.7N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/0600Z 24.4N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z 25.1N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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