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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-08-29 16:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 291433 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 900 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Iselle has changed little in organization since the last advisory, as the storm has a classic shear pattern in satellite imagery with the low-level center near the northeastern edge of the convective mass. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little in the last 6 h, so the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The cyclone has tracked a little to the right with the initial motion now north-northeastward or 025/6 kt. This should be short lived, and Iselle is expected to resume a northward motion later today or tonight. The northward motion should continue for another day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as Iselle becomes a weak and shallow system. The new forecast track is tweaked a little from the previous forecast based on the initial position and motion. Iselle is moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and it continues to experience easterly vertical shear. This combination should cause steady weakening, and the new intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in calling for the system to weaken to a depression by 24 h, to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h, and to weaken to a trough by 72 h. The new intensity forecast lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 20.3N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 21.3N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 22.8N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 23.9N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1200Z 24.7N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/0000Z 25.4N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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