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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-08-29 22:38:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 292038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Iselle has become less organized during the past several hours, as the area of convection southwest of the center is now smaller and farther from the center than previously. This is likely due to the combined effects of continued easterly shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures under the storm. A recent ASCAT overpass shows that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 kt, but the tropical-storm-force winds are now occurring only over the southeastern quadrant. The initial motion is north-northeastward or 025/6 kt. Iselle should turn toward the north during the next several hours as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to the east. The northward motion should continue for another day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as Iselle becomes a weak and shallow system. The new forecast track again has minor adjustment from the previous track based mainly on the initial position and motion. The shear and cooler water along the forecast track should cause Iselle to steadily weaken, and the new forecast track has no changes from the previous forecast. The forecast, which calls for the cyclone to weaken to a depression by 24 h, to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h, and to weaken to a trough by 72 h, again lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 21.0N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 22.1N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 23.4N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 24.2N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1800Z 24.8N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/0600Z 25.4N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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