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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-08-30 04:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300231 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Most of the deep convection associated with Iselle has been displaced to the west of the center due to strong easterly shear caused by a large upper-level anticyclone to the northeast. Based on the decreased organization, it is assumed that the cyclone has been gradually spinning down this evening, and the current intensity estimate is set at 35 kt. Although the shear may relax a bit in a day or so, Iselle will be moving over increasingly cooler waters during that time. Therefore, continued weakening is anticipated, and the system will likely degenerate into a remnant low in 12 to 24 hours. The official intensity forecast is at the high end of the model guidance. The cyclone has been moving north-northeastward, at around 020/8 kt, on the west side of a mid-level high pressure area. The weakening and increasingly shallow system should gradually turn to the left under the influence of the lower-level flow. The official track forecast is about in the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 21.8N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 22.9N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 23.9N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/1200Z 24.5N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0000Z 25.0N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/1200Z 25.5N 115.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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