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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-28 10:32:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280831 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 Iselle continues to produce deep convection near the center and on its west side. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to a moderate amount of easterly wind shear. An ASCAT-A overpass from a few hours ago showed maximum winds in the 45-50 kt range, and based on that data, the initial intensity is nudged up to 50 kt. The intensity models suggest that little change in strength is likely today as Iselle remains in the current environment of easterly shear. However, gradual weakening should begin by tonight and continue through the weekend as Iselle moves over progressively cooler waters and into a more stable air mass. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the models, and predicts Iselle to weaken to a tropical depression in a couple of days and to a remnant low shortly thereafter. Iselle is moving slowly northeastward toward Tropical Storm Hernan located near the coast of west-central Mexico. Iselle should generally move northeastward to north-northeastward as it remains embedded in a trough with Hernan for about another day. Thereafter, Hernan is expected to dissipate and a low- to mid-level ridge should cause Iselle to turn to the northwest. This track keeps Iselle well offshore the Baja California peninsula. The models are in fair agreement, and this forecast lies close to the various consensus aids. The initial wind radii have been modified based on the aforementioned ASCAT data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 17.9N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 18.7N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 20.1N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 21.7N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 23.0N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 23.9N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0600Z 24.2N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 24.5N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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