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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 14
2019-08-24 16:53:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 513 WTPZ45 KNHC 241453 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Deep convection associated with Ivo has made a comeback during the past several hours, with a large convective mass now near the center over the western semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little more since the last advisory, and the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly conservative 35 kt. The cyclone is moving steadily over cooler sea surface temperatures and continued weakening is expected. The new intensity forecast therefore follows the guidance and the previous forecast in calling for Ivo to weaken to a depression by 24 h, to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h, and to dissipate completely by 72 h. The initial motion is 330/8. The subtropical ridge to the east should steer Ivo generally north-northwestward for the next couple of days, with some decrease in forward speed before the system dissipates. The new official forecast track is again similar to the previous track. Due to the persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated with Ivo during the last few days, high swells continue to propagate northeastward toward portions of the southern Baja California peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 21.8N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 23.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 24.6N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 26.0N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 26.8N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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