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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 16
2019-08-25 04:39:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250239 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Deep convection associated with Ivo has quickly waned this evening. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft that flew into the storm this afternoon found SFMR winds that suggested that the cyclone may have been slightly stronger than previously estimated. However, with the degradation in organization since that time, the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt for this advisory. Ivo has moved north of the 26C isotherm and is heading toward even colder waters and a more stable environment. Thus weakening should occur overnight, and Ivo is forecast to become a tropical depression within 12 hours and to degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday night. The initial motion is 335/8 kt. Ivo continues moving north- northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The cyclone should decelerate and turn northward on Sunday as it weakens and comes under the influence of the low-level steering flow. The persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated with Ivo during the last few days has generated swells that are now reaching portions of the coasts of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells are likely to cause rip currents. See products from your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 23.4N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 24.7N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 25.9N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1200Z 26.7N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 27.0N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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