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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-08-21 22:34:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 212034 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102014 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Over the past several hours the cyclone has exhibited an ongoing increase in organization, with a curved band wrapping around the low level center apparent in both satellite imagery and microwave data. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt and this is a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Ivo's initial motion is 285/17 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone will continue to steer it to the west-northwest through much of tonight. By Thursday, a weakness is expected to develop to the northwest of the cyclone which will result in a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed. The cyclone is then forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder of the forecast period. Ivo will be over warm SSTs near 30C and in a moist environment for the next 48 hours, which should favor intensification. And, although the SHIPS guidance suggests 15 kt of northeasterly shear may be affecting the cyclone, the satellite appearance does not suggest that this shear is having much of impact at this time. Based on the favorable environment, steady strengthening is forecast, and Ivo is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. By 72 hours, the cyclone will begin to move over much cooler waters and into a stable air mass while undergoing increasing southwesterly shear. This should cause the cyclone to weaken and it is expected to become a convection-free post-tropical cyclone by day 5. The official forecast has been increased slightly from the previous one and is close to the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 15.8N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 28.8N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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