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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-08-22 16:41:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 377 WTPZ45 KNHC 221440 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 The cyclone continues to gradually improve in organization. Microwave data show that there is a small eye trying to form beneath Ivo's small central dense overcast, and satellite intensity estimates are rising. Consequently, the initial wind speed is set to 55 kt, which matches the TAFB/SAB fixes. Further strengthening is anticipated in the short term since Ivo has a developing inner core and is over very warm waters with moderate shear. The models are pretty consistent about showing an increase in shear by tomorrow while the cyclone turns to the northwest. Thus the intensity forecast is leveled off at that time, then a slow weakening is shown beyond 36 h as Ivo begins its inevitable decline over cooler eastern Pacific waters and in more stable air. Remnant low status is anticipated just after 72 h since Ivo will be over 23C or cooler waters by then. Little change was made to the previous intensity forecast except for a small rise at 12 h to account for the recent initial intensity increase. Similar to many eastern Pacific cyclones this year, the center has re-formed a bit to the south in the central dense overcast, yielding an initial motion of 270/10. The storm should turn northwestward tomorrow due to an upper-level trough dropping over the eastern Pacific south of California, which helps erode a mid-level ridge over mainland Mexico. The ridge stays weak through the weekend, causing Ivo to move north-northwestward until dissipation. The eastward model trend at long range continues, so the NHC forecast is adjusted in that direction. It should be noted that none of the guidance still show a direct threat to Mexico at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 15.7N 113.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 16.4N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 17.9N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 19.5N 116.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 21.2N 117.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 25.0N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 28.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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