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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-08-22 22:33:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 222032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Visible satellite images show a bit of a surprise with Ivo this afternoon. The system is not as well organized as earlier microwave data displayed, with the center almost partially exposed on the northeastern side of the central dense overcast. The initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, which is in line with TAFB/SAB estimates and 50-55 kt ASCAT-C winds. With shear still forecast to increase overnight, only slight intensification of Ivo is anticipated. While Ivo could still become a hurricane, almost all of the guidance has backed off on this cycle. Weakening should begin over the weekend when the storm moves over progressive cooler waters. Convection is likely to dissipate in about 72 hours, and post-tropical status of Ivo is forecast at that time. Overall the new forecast is reduced about 5 kt from the previous one, near or slightly above the model consensus. Ivo has turned west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt. The storm should turn to the northwest tomorrow and north-northwest on Saturday due to steering from a mid-level ridge over Mexico. Model guidance is coming into better agreement on this course, with fairly small variations. Overall, the small eastward trend seen in the guidance continues, and the new NHC prediction is shifted a little eastward at long range. Still, none of the guidance still show a direct tropical cyclone threat to Mexico at this time. It is worth noting that the current size of Ivo has been greatly increased due to the ASCAT-C data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 16.1N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 17.0N 114.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 20.2N 116.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 25.9N 119.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 26/1800Z 28.5N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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