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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-08-23 04:32:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 885 WTPZ45 KNHC 230232 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Visible satellite pictures show that the center of Ivo has become exposed to the northeast of the deep convection due to moderate to strong northeasterly shear. Although the latest Dvorak T-numbers have decreased slightly, the initial intensity is being held at 55 kt which is in agreement with earlier ASCAT data and recent UW/CIMSS SATCON estimates. Overnight scatterometer data should provide a better assessment of Ivo's intensity. Guidance suggests that the shear is likely to remain moderate to strong during the next 12-18 hours while Ivo traverses warm waters. The shear could relax Friday night, but by that time the cyclone is forecast to move over decreasing SSTs and into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. As a result, little overall change in strength is anticipated during the next day or so. After that time, Ivo should weaken as it moves over SSTs below 26C and into a stable air mass. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low within 72 hours, and dissipate by day 5. Ivo has turned sharply today, with the initial motion now north-northwestward or 335/8 kt. The storm is forecast to move northwestward to north-northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge. The latest track envelope has shifted eastward, partially due to the sharper turn and the more eastward initial position. This has resulted in a slightly eastward shift in the official forecast, but it remains close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 16.9N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 19.5N 115.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 21.2N 116.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 23.0N 117.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 26.6N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z 28.5N 120.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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