je.st
news
Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 6
2016-08-08 16:36:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 081436 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 900 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 Javier has not become better organized since yesterday evening, with a significant decrease in the associated deep convection aside from a small burst near or north of the estimated center. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB remain at T3.0 corresponding to 45 kt, and this will be the advisory intensity. Since the vertical shear is forecast to remain very low for the next couple of days, some strengthening is still forecast while Javier moves near the Baja California peninsula. The official intensity forecast for the next 24 to 36 hours is above the intensity guidance, but close to the latest SHIPS prediction. Within the next couple of days, cooling SSTs, land interaction, and an increasingly stable air mass are likely to induce weakening. Although the center is difficult to locate, it is estimated that the northwestward motion, 310/9 kt, continues. Javier is forecast to continue moving around the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered over Texas. The official forecast is slightly to the left of the previous one but on the eastern side of the track guidance suite. Although the NHC forecast does not show Javier becoming a hurricane, it is prudent to keep the hurricane warning in place for the southern Baja California peninsula, at least until an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigates the system this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 22.0N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 22.5N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 23.4N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 24.4N 111.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 25.7N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 27.5N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||