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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-08-05 22:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 052032 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 Jimena's cloud pattern, which has changed little since earlier this morning, consists of a fragmented curved band in the northwestern semicircle and a patch of deep convection just to the southeast of the surface center. The subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged (T2.5) and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Jimena has about another 12 hours or so before it traverses decreasing (sub-25C) sea-surface temperatures, and the surrounding environment becomes less favorable due to an intruding dry and stable air mass. Increasing west-northwesterly shear is also expected to negatively affect the cyclone beyond the 36 hour period. The official intensity forecast, which is similar to the IVCN intensity consensus model, indicates Jimena becoming a depression in about 24 hours and further weakening to a remnant low on Saturday, and opening up into a trough of low pressure on Sunday. The initial motions is estimated to be northwest, or 310/7 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge situated to the northeast of the cyclone should keep Jimena moving toward the northwest through the 48 period. Afterward, a turn toward the west-northwest is forecast as the vertically shallow system is steered by the low-level environmental flow. The NHC track forecast, once again, follows the TVCN consensus aid closely, and is similar to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 16.4N 137.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 17.0N 138.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 17.9N 139.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 18.8N 141.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 19.7N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0600Z 20.2N 143.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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