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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-08-06 10:37:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060837 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 Convection associated with Jimena has diminished some during the past few hours. However, recently-received ASCAT data showed 35 kt winds in a small area to the northwest of the center. Based mainly on this data, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. The storm is moving over cooler sea-surface temperatures, and that, along with increasing shear and a drier airmass, should cause the cyclone to decay into a remnant low by the 36 h point. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. The initial motion is northwestward or 310/7 kt. As Jimena weakens, the increasingly shallow system is expected to be steered by the low-level trade-wind flow, which should cause it to turn gradually to the west-northwest. The new official forecast has little change from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.2N 138.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 17.8N 139.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 18.5N 140.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 19.0N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0600Z 19.3N 143.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1800Z 19.5N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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