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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-09-01 10:32:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010832 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 Earlier scatterometer surface wind data around 0400 UTC indicate that the low pressure system located about 400 nmi south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, had become better defined and that tropical-storm-force winds were occurring in the northern semicircle. More specifically, an ASCAT-A pass revealed peak surface winds of 42 kt, which could have been slightly rain inflated, and an ASCAT-C pass showed peak winds of 39 kt. Based on a blend of these wind data, the low has been upgraded to a 40-kt tropical storm, the tenth tropical storm of the 2019 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Juliette's initial motion estimate is an uncertain 310/06 kt. The advisory position is an average of the locations of the mid- and low-level circulation centers, in anticipation of the low-level center noted in the ASCAT-C wind data developing closer to the recent bursts of central deep convection. Otherwise, the track forecast is pretty straight-forward with the NHC model guidance in good agreement on maintaining the deep-layer ridge to the north of Juliette throughout the forecast period. This steering pattern should result in the cyclone moving slowly northwestward today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed on Monday, with a west-northwestward motion continuing through 120 hours. The NHC forecast track lies close to the tightly packed consensus models HCCA and TVCE. Juliette is expected to remain within a favorable environment for intensification to occur over the next 48-72 hours or so, which is characterized by low vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt, a moist mid-level environment, and sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 28-29 deg C. Therefore, the official intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening, with Juliette expected to become a hurricane on Monday. By 96 hours, the cyclone will be moving over SSTs around 26 deg C and cooler, which should induce gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is above the consensus intensity models HCCA and IVCN, and is close to a blend of the statistical SHIPS intensity models and the dynamical HWRF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 13.2N 107.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 14.5N 109.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 15.7N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 16.7N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 17.6N 115.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 18.9N 118.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 21.8N 124.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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