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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-09-01 16:41:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 011441 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 Juliette has been quickly organizing this morning. Satellite and microwave data indicate that a small central dense overcast has formed, with a large band on the east side. The current wind speed is set to 50 kt, in line with the recent CIMSS objective Dvorak estimate since the subjective estimates are still catching up with this storm. There's been a significant change to the intensity and size forecasts of Juliette this morning, with guidance now showing a stronger and larger hurricane in about a day. This is consistent with the recent development of the early stages of an inner core, which would allow Juliette to continue to intensify at a fast pace. Indeed, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility due to an environment of low shear and very warm water, and the various rapid intensification indices are all showing this chance. Thus the forecast is raised from the last one, similar to the corrected consensus guidance, and further upward adjustments might be required this afternoon. Fixes show that the storm is moving faster to the northwest this morning. A ridge to the northeast of Juliette should steer the storm on this general path for the next several days, followed by a slight turn toward the west-northwest at the end. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the new forecast is basically an update of the previous one, close to the eastern Pacific model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 14.3N 108.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 15.3N 110.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 16.5N 112.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 19.2N 118.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 20.5N 121.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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