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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 24
2019-09-07 04:31:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 070231 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 500 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 Juliette continues to slowly weaken. Cloud tops have gradually warmed since the last advisory and several recent microwave overpasses show that convection is now limited to the eastern half of the cyclone. The intensity has been lowered to 55 kt based on the latest TAFB Dvorak fix. No substantial changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts. Juliette is located over 23-24 deg C waters, and will remain over fairly cool waters for the next several days. Continued weakening appears inevitable and Juliette is forecast to become a remnant low within 48 h. Although the system will reach marginally warmer waters to the west by the end of the forecast period, it will have weakened enough that significant regeneration is unlikely at that time. The initial motion remains west-northwestward at 11 kt. Juliette should turn westward on Saturday as it weakens further and is steered entirely by low-level easterly flow. All of the models forecast that the tropical storm/remnant low will then continue westward for several days thereafter. The NHC forecast is very close to the East Pacific multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 23.7N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 24.1N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 24.2N 129.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 24.1N 132.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 24.0N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0000Z 23.9N 138.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0000Z 24.0N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0000Z 24.0N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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