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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 25
2019-09-07 10:34:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 070834 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 Juliette is rapidly declining and is well on its way to becoming post-tropical. Cloud tops have warmed dramatically over the past few hours, and satellite intensity estimates have decreased sharply in turn. ASCAT data that arrived shortly before 06Z revealed that Juliette is not as strong as previously estimated, with max winds of only 35-40 kt. Based on that new info, the intensity has been adjusted down to 40 kt. The main change in the NHC forecast is that it now shows Juliette becoming post-tropical in 24 hours. Given current trends, it could certainly happen much sooner than that. Otherwise, the overall reasoning behind the forecast is the same. Juliette is located over quite cold waters and will steadily spin down over the next several days. The tropical storm has turned westward and should continue heading west through the middle of next week, steered by low-level easterly trade winds. This track will take the soon-to-be remnant low over warmer waters by day 5, and some of the dynamical guidance suggests that Juliette could try to make a comeback at that time. However, extremely high wind shear should prevent any convection that does develop from becoming organized and regeneration is not expected. The NHC track and intensity forecasts remain very close to the various consensus aids throughout the 5-day period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 23.8N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 24.0N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 24.0N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/1800Z 24.0N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0600Z 23.9N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0600Z 23.7N 139.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0600Z 23.5N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0600Z 24.0N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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