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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 26
2019-09-07 16:46:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 071446 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 500 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 The last bit of Juliette's deep convection--using -50C cloud tops as a proxy--dissipated around 0400 UTC. Although it's likely that the storm's winds are decreasing, recent satellite estimates range from 25 kt from SAB to 45 kt from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS SATCON. Therefore, the initial intensity will remain 40 kt on this advisory. Although Juliette is now departing a minimum in sea surface temperatures (23-24C), ocean waters ahead of the system will remain below 26C for the next 3 days or so. In addition, west- southwesterly vertical shear will be increasing substantially by 48 hours. If deep convection doesn't redevelop soon, Juliette will become a post-tropical cyclone later today, and then maintain that status with surface winds gradually decreasing over the next several days. The low should open up into a trough around day 5. The initial motion is 280/10 kt. Now that the cyclone has become shallow, it is expected to be steered generally westward by the low-level trade winds. The track models are in good agreement on the future track of Juliette through day 4, and no appreciable changes were required from the previous NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 24.2N 128.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 24.3N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 08/1200Z 24.3N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0000Z 24.3N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1200Z 24.2N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1200Z 24.0N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1200Z 24.5N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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