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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 16
2014-08-16 22:38:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 16 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 162038 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 16 2014 The cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate today, with the low-level center now removed from the deep convection due to moderate easterly shear. T-numbers have decreased to T2.0 and T2.5 on the Dvorak scale, and a recent partial ASCAT pass shows maximum winds of 35 knots. On this basis, the intensity has been set at 35 knots. Although Karina has weakened, it most likely will begin to re-strengthen in about 24 hours when the circulation moves over warmer waters and into weaker shear. In fact, the HWRF insists on bringing Karina back to hurricane status in 3 days. The NHC forecast is not that aggressive and brings the winds only to 50 knots in agreement with the intensity consensus. Microwave and conventional fixes indicate that the center has been moving just south of due west or 260 degrees at 10 knots. The ridge to the north of Karina is expected to amplify a little more forcing the cyclone to move on a west-southwest track for the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, the steering currents are expected to collapse due to the development of several disturbances nearby, and that pattern will keep the cyclone meandering for the remainder of the forecast period. Most of the dynamical track guidance forecast a sharp but slow turn to the right before Karina arrives at 132 degrees longitude. Given the weak steering flow, the NHC forecast shows little movement between 3 and 5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 17.9N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 17.7N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 17.5N 128.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 17.0N 129.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 16.5N 131.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 15.5N 132.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 15.5N 132.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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