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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 47
2014-08-24 16:47:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 241447 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 Karina's deep convection has expanded some this morning, and the strong temperature gradient in the infrared imagery on the east side of the cyclone has weakened. Both would be indicative of the large vertical shear diminishing some, consistent with the CIMSS analysis of 5-10 kt shear. The GFS-based SHIPS shear, on the other hand, is diagnosed as being about 20 kt. The intensity estimates widely range from 45-75 kt, depending on whether a shear or embedded center pattern is used in the Dvorak technique. The initial intensity is lowered slightly to 55 kt, but this estimate has more than the usual uncertainty. Even if the shear has subsided some currently, this should pick up more shortly as the outflow from major hurricane Marie affects Karina. The combination of strong vertical shear, marginally warm SSTs, and fairly dry air should lead to at least a gradual - if not quick - weakening of the tropical cyclone. The intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF models and is quite similar to that from the previous advisory. An ASCAT pass from late last night indicated tropical-storm-force winds extending out about 60 nm on the eastern semi-circle. The initial size is assessed the same as that previously, and a gradual reduction in tropical-storm-force wind radii is anticipated as the cyclone weakens. Karina is being steered east-northeastward at 8 kt around the large circulation of post-tropical Lowell to its north-northeast. The absence of microwave imagery over Karina and the lack of visible imagery before sunrise makes the current position and motion somewhat unclear. The steering influence of Lowell will diminish in about a day as the distance between the systems increases, and Karina should respond by slowing down and turning gradually to the east-southeast. In about two days, Karina's track will mainly be influenced by the approaching very large and strong Marie. Karina should be accelerated along toward the east until it becomes absorbed within Marie in about three to four days. The forecast track is based upon a blend of the GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models and is slightly faster than that issued in the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 18.0N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 18.0N 130.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 18.0N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 17.8N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 17.5N 127.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 16.9N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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