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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-08-14 10:37:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140837 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2014 Deep convection associated with Karina has been expanding during the last several hours, and microwave images suggest that the storm is maintaining a tight inner core. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 3.0/45 kt at 0600 UTC, but recent ADT values from UW-CIMSS are a little higher. The initial wind speed is nudged upward to 50 kt based on the latest trends. East-northeasterly shear of 10 to 15 kt is currently affecting Karina, which is restricting the outflow on the east side of the circulation. Although the shear is not expected to change much during the next 24 to 36 hours, it should lessen beyond that time period. The official intensity forecast continues to call for steady strengthening during the next few days while Karina remains over warm water and in a relatively moist air mass. Gradual weakening is predicted in 4 to 5 days when the system moves over more marginal sea surface temperatures. This forecast is similar to the previous one, and remains at the upper end of the model guidance. Karina is moving westward at about 12 kt on the southwest side of a deep layer ridge centered over northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. This ridge is expected to build westward over the Pacific Ocean, which should keep the storm moving westward at about the same forward speed for the next few days. After that time, the track forecast is complicated by the potential interaction with other low pressure areas moving out of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The GFS shows a more northerly track of Karina due its interaction with a disturbance to the west of the storm, while the ECMWF shows a more southerly track due to its interaction with the developing system to the east of Karina. The NHC track forecast is between these scenarios, close to the model consensus, and is just a tad to the north of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 17.4N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 17.5N 116.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 17.7N 119.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 18.0N 121.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 18.2N 123.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 18.6N 128.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 18.2N 131.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 18.0N 133.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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