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Tropical Storm KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-09-01 10:37:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010837 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF KIKO SEEMS TO HAVE HALTED TONIGHT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM HAS A TIGHT INNER CORE...BUT THE CDO HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS SYMMETRIC WITH THE CENTER NOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS MAY BE THE RESULT OF SOME SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEER OVER THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 60 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT ASCAT DATA. KIKO IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHOULD CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN INTENSITY VERY SOON AND COULD STILL BECOME HURRICANE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THAT IS NO LONGER EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN THE UPDATED FOREAST. COOLER SSTS AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT. KIKO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 010/6 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AROUND THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AS KIKO WEAKENS AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS KIKO GAINING MORE LATITUDE BEFORE WEAKENING AND SLOWING DOWN. AS A RESULT...THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THE UPDATED TRACK IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 20.6N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 21.4N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 22.2N 115.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 22.8N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 23.1N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 23.5N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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