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Tropical Storm KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-09-01 22:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 012034 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF KIKO HAS DEGRADED SIGNIFICANTLY. DEEP CONVECTION...WHAT LITTLE THERE IS THAT REMAINS...IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEVERTHELESS... KIKO REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM BASED ON A 47-KT SCATTEROMETER WIND REPORT FROM A 1653 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS. AS A RESULT OF THE SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING DECREASED TO 50 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/05 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. KIKO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND GRADUALLY SLOW AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. AS KIKO WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW CIRCULATION...THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME STATIONARY AS A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE. KIKO IS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS A TIGHT SST GRADIENT AND WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C OCEAN TEMPERATURES SHORTLY. IN ADDITION... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS STARTED TO INGEST COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO UNFAVORABLE PARAMETERS IS EXPECTED TO HASTEN THE WEAKENING OF KIKO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RESULT IN A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS... WHICH ARE FORECASTING DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM IN 48 AND 96 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 21.8N 115.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 22.5N 115.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 23.1N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 23.5N 116.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 23.7N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z 24.0N 116.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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