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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-09-16 10:23:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160823 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Karina is weakening in a hurry. Deep convection near the center has largely dissipated, and the only area of lingering convection is in the northeastern quadrant. An ASCAT overpass from around 0500 UTC showed maximum winds in the 30-35 kt range, and based on that data the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. The tropical storm is already in unfavorable conditions of cool 25 C waters and a dry and stable airmass. Since Karina will be moving over even cooler waters and into an environment of stronger southerly wind shear, continued weakening is expected. Karina is now forecast to become a remnant low by 24 hours and dissipate within a few days. Karina is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt as it remains steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. A continued west-northwest to northwest motion should continue for about another day, but after Karina becomes a shallow remnant low it is expected to turn westward within the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 21.7N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 22.4N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 23.1N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1800Z 23.5N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 23.4N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 23.1N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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