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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-13 16:53:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 131453 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Karina's center is a little bit closer to the deep convection this morning, resulting in intensity estimates increasing slightly. Based on Dvorak estimates of T3.0/45 kt and T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, and an overnight SATCON estimate of 42 kt, Karina's initial intensity is assumed to be 40 kt. The moderate northeasterly shear currently affecting the cyclone is not expected to change appreciably during the next few days. However, Karina will remain over ocean waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius for the next 48 hours, which should allow for a gradual intensification trend during that period. The shear is forecast to lighten up in 3-4 days, but by then Karina will be over colder waters and in a drier, more stable environment, which should induce weakening. Karina is likely to lose all of its deep convection and become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is generally close to the HCCA aid and the IVCN intensity consensus and shows weakening starting a little sooner than before. Karina is moving toward the west-northwest (300/9 kt), south of a mid-level ridge axis which extends from northwestern Mexico southwestward over the Pacific. This ridge should keep Karina on this general heading with a very gradually decreasing forward speed through day 4. Once the cyclone weakens to a remnant low, it is expected to turn westward, steered by lower-level trade winds. No significant changes in the track forecast were required compared to the previous prediction, and the official forecast lies generally close to the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 17.6N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 18.3N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 19.0N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 19.7N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 20.2N 120.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 20.9N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 21.7N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 22.6N 125.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 22.8N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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