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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-13 22:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 132036 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 A midday ASCAT pass revealed that Karina still has an elongated circulation and is likely still attached to the ITCZ/monsoon trough. The center is also displaced to the northeast of the deepest convection due to ongoing moderate northeasterly shear. The ASCAT data confirmed that the storm currently has maximum winds of 40 k, with most of the tropical-storm-force winds located over the southern semicircle. With the shear not expected to decrease from its current magnitude, only modest strengthening is expected during the next 36 hours or so while Karina remains over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius. The peak intensity shown in the official forecast has been adjusted downward to 50 kt, which is now the highest intensity shown by any of the intensity models. Colder waters and a drier, more stable atmosphere should induce gradual weakening after day 2, with Karina likely to lose all of its deep convection and become a remnant low by day 4. Karina turned a little bit to the left today but still has a west-northwestward heading (290/10 kt). A mid-level ridge located to the north should keep Karina on a west-northwestward trajectory with some reduction in forward speed through day 4. Once it weakens to a remnant low, Karina is expected to turn westward, steered by lower-level trade winds. There is some north-south divergence among the track models during Karina's expected remnant low stage, but the overall guidance envelope has not shifted. Therefore, the updated NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous one and lies close to the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 17.8N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 18.5N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 19.1N 118.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 19.8N 120.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 20.5N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 21.2N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 21.9N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 22.5N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z 22.5N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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