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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-14 10:47:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140847 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Karina continues to be a sheared cyclone with the deep convection displaced to the southwest of the exposed low-level center. Recent scatterometer data showed winds up to 40 kt in the southern semicircle, and thus the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The cyclone has moved more westward during the past several hours, possibly due to reformation of the center closer to the convection. This motion of 280/11 is expected to be short-lived, as all of the available track guidance indicates that Karina should turn northwestward during the next 24 h, with a northwestward to west-northwestward then expected through 96 h. After that, the cyclone or its remnants are expected to turn back to the west. The new forecast track is adjusted to the west of the previous track based on the current position and motion, and it lies a bit to the left of the various consensus models. The 96 h point has been nudged a little to the north of the previous forecast based on a northward shift of the guidance at that time. While Karina is likely to continue to feel the effects of northeasterly vertical shear for the next 36 h or so, the new forecast track gives it a little more time over warmer water. Thus, the intensity forecast keeps the door open for some strengthening for 24 h or so. After that, the center should move over cooler water, which should cause the cyclone to weaken to a remnant low by 96 h and dissipate by 120 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 17.9N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 18.4N 119.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 19.3N 120.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 20.2N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 21.3N 123.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 22.0N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 22.6N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 23.0N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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