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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 18
2017-08-22 22:36:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 222036 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Kenneth's associated deep convection has been diminishing in coverage and intensity. The tropical cyclone is now traversing SSTs below 25 deg C, and continues to weaken. Using a blend of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB gives a current intensity estimate of 60 kt, bringing the system below hurricane strength. Continued weakening at a fairly rapid pace is expected while the system moves over progressively cooler waters and encounters strong shear. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest Florida State University Superensemble prediction, and Kenneth should weaken to a depression and degenerate to a remnant low in 48 hours or sooner. The initial motion estimate remains 330/10 kt. There is no need to make significant changes to the track forecast from the previous advisory package. Kenneth should continue to move through a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a mid-level trough near 140W longitude. Later in the forecast period, the shallow vortex should turn leftward following the low-level flow. The official track forecast is only slightly to the right of the consensus, and leans toward the GFS and ECMWF tracks. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 21.8N 133.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 23.1N 134.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 24.9N 135.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 26.3N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 27.5N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 29.0N 137.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z 30.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1800Z 31.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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