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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 21
2017-08-23 16:36:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231435 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Practically all of Kenneth's deep convection has dissipated while the system traverses SSTs near 23 deg C. Using a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates yields a current intensity of 35 kt. The cyclone is likely to continue to weaken due to cool waters and strong south-southwesterly shear associated with a broad upper-level trough to its west. Kenneth should become a post-tropical cyclone in 12 to 24 hours or sooner. The latest center fixes indicate that the motion has bent a little to the left and is now around 330/10 kt. Kenneth or the post- tropical cyclone should continue to move through a break in the subtropical ridge on a generally north-northwestward heading with some deceleration over the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, when the cyclone is likely to be very weak and shallow, a turn toward the northwest is expected following the low-level flow. The official track forecast is close to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 24.6N 135.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 25.8N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 27.1N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z 28.0N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z 28.6N 136.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z 29.7N 137.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z 30.7N 139.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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