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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-08-19 04:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190231 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017 Conventional satellite imagery and an earlier SSMI/S overpass show that the depression has been strengthening during the past several hours. Impressive outer curved banding has developed in the eastern and northern portions of the cyclone, and the last few visible images are showing early signs of a small central dense overcast, or inner core formation. Based on the overall improvement of the cloud pattern and Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of 35 kt from SAB and TAFB, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Kenneth. The northeasterly shear is diminishing, the oceanic temperatures are warm, and the low to mid levels of the atmosphere are moist, all bolstering further strengthening through the 48-hour period. Afterward, decreasing sea surface temperatures and an intruding stable air mass from the north should result in gradual weakening. No significant changes were made to the previous intensity forecast, and the NHC forecast is based primarily on the IVCN multi-model consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/13 kt. Kenneth is embedded in the easterly mid-level flow of a subtropical ridge extending over the eastern Pacific from northern Mexico. The cyclone should commence a gradual turn toward the west-northwest around the 24-hour period as a mid- to upper-level low located just southwest of the southern California coast amplifies and erodes the ridge to the northwest of Kenneth. Kenneth's motion is expected to be further influenced by this growing weakness in the ridge by decreasing in forward speed, turning northwestward on day 3, and then north-northwestward around the 96-hour period. The guidance suite is surprisingly tightly clustered through the entire forecast period. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is hedged toward the HCCA corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.0N 119.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 15.4N 121.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 16.0N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 16.8N 126.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 17.7N 128.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 19.6N 131.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 22.3N 133.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 25.2N 133.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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