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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-08-19 22:35:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 192035 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Kenneth is on a strengthening trend. The cloud pattern of the tropical storm consists of a central dense overcast and curved outer bands, mostly on the south and west portions of the circulation. A partial SSMI/S overpass around 1500 UTC shows a mid-level eye feature, but it also indicated that the system is still vertically tilted from northeast to southwest, likely the result of northeasterly shear. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are unanimously 3.5/55 kt, and the initial wind speed is increased to that value. Kenneth is moving west-northwestward at 16 kt on the south side of a narrow mid-level ridge. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest is expected during the next 2 to 3 days while the storm moves toward the southwestern periphery of the ridge. Thereafter, an even slower motion toward the north-northwest is forecast as Kenneth moves into a break in the ridge caused by a large-scale trough off of the west coast of the United States. The track models have shifted a little to the south and west this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in those directions. The environmental conditions appear generally favorable for Kenneth to keep strengthening during the next 36 hours or so, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane as early as tonight. After that time, SSTs fall below 26 deg C along the expected path of Kenneth, and these cool waters combined with a drier air mass should end the strengthening trend and induce gradual weakening. An increase in south-southwesterly shear in 4 to 5 days will also aid in the weakening process. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one and is in best agreement with the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. This forecast also calls for Kenneth to become a post-tropical cyclone by the end of the period when it will be over SSTs near 22 deg C. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 15.9N 123.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 16.5N 125.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 17.2N 127.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 18.1N 130.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 19.1N 131.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 21.8N 133.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 24.4N 134.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 27.1N 135.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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