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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-09-12 22:45:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 122044 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 A recent scatterometer pass depicted a better defined circulation and wind speeds of 30-35 kt northwest of the center of the system. Based on this data and recent satellite imagery continuing to show increased curved banding features, we have decided to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Kiko with an intensity of 35 kt. The system is moving to the west-northwest around 10 kt. There is good agreement on the track over the next couple of days, with the system continuing a west to west-northwest movement to the south of a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into the eastern Pacific. There is a small northward shift in most of the guidance and consensus solutions at longer range, and thus the forecast is adjusted in this direction, although it remains south of model consensus. The model trend has been to keep the system moving faster than our previous forecast, and thus the new forecast has been sped up to become more in line with current consensus solutions. Kiko is expected to remain within a favorable environment for intensification over the next several days, with minimal shear and SSTs between 27-29 deg C. The system is thus still on track to become a hurricane this weekend. There remains some chance we see a more rapid intensification of the cyclone during the next few days, with higher rapid intensification probabilities noted in the SHIPS guidance than 6h ago. For now, since it is still unknown how much of an inner core will develop, the forecast will be a bit conservative, but remains above the model consensus intensity. Some weakening is expected by early next week as the system moves over cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 16.1N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 16.3N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 16.6N 115.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 17.1N 117.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 18.5N 122.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 19.3N 125.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 20.0N 128.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake
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