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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 23
2019-09-18 04:50:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 180250 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Kiko's convection has lacked some shape during the past few hours, with two main bursts observed near the center. Although subjective Dvorak Current Intensity numbers remain 3.5 (55 kt), ADT and SATCON estimates, as well as the afternoon ASCAT data, indicate that Kiko's winds are much weaker than that. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt as a compromise of all the available estimates, and even that could be generous. Kiko's future track looks like a roller coaster, with successive dips and rises in latitude resulting from cyclical strengthening and weakening of the mid-level ridge to the north. Although all of the models depict this general pattern, there is some model speed divergence after 36 hours. In the end, however, the updated NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and it's close to the multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA model. Kiko has re-entered a zone of low shear, and it will soon be leaving an area of relatively low oceanic heat content. It may take a little time for the cyclone to feed off these better environmental conditions, but re-strengthening is anticipated to begin by 36 hours and continue for much of the forecast period. The new intensity forecast is just a little higher than the previous one, although it's not near the high end of the guidance envelope. Additional increases in the forecast peak intensity are possible in subsequent advisories if the higher-intensity models, including HCCA, don't come back down. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 16.7N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 16.4N 126.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 16.2N 127.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.2N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 16.5N 128.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 17.0N 129.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 16.9N 131.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 15.9N 134.3W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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